Kevin Warsh's fakeout

Today on the show: the Federal Reserve heads into one of its most unpredictable meetings in years, Polymarket traders face massive rate-decision exposure, Marine Le Pen is suddenly back in the French presidential mix, and Roman Terekh from Bravado joins to break down five prediction market shockers. 

Alex Keeney and Pratik Chougule dig into the Fed’s July rate decision market, where nearly $90 million in volume has turned next week’s meeting into what Alex calls “the greatest liquidation event since Bob’s Furniture’s Fourth of July sale.” With cooler inflation, renewed Middle East conflict, energy-price jitters, and a new Fed chair in Kevin Warsh, traders are asking whether “no rate change” is a buying opportunity — or whether the market is finally pricing in a real hawkish turn. 

Then: WTF France? Marine Le Pen’s odds have surged after a court lifted her ban from running for president, even as an electronic monitoring tag could complicate her campaign. Is this a buy, sell, or hold moment for traders looking at the 2027 French election? Plus, Oracle of the Week and a special segment with Roman from Bravado on prediction market behavior: misleading PnLs, how long trading accounts survive, concentration of wealth, whale signal vs. retail signal, and how long it takes to become a prediction market black belt.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.