3 World Cup trades + AI backlash in Ohio

Alex Keeney is joined by Doug Campbell for a World Cup and politics-heavy episode of Eventual.

First, Alex and Doug break down the World Cup through a prediction-market lens, focusing on home-field advantage, hostile road environments, altitude, and how those factors can shape knockout-stage expectations. Doug explains why home teams and home-continent teams may be undervalued, why older underdog-betting theories may not be working in recent knockout rounds, and where he sees value across World Cup markets.

Then they turn to the latest New York Times/Siena battleground Senate polls. The numbers look rougher for Democrats in several key races, but Doug argues one poll should not radically change the broader picture. Alex and Doug discuss whether Democrats are still a buy, why polling error matters months before Election Day, and how a small miss could swing multiple Senate seats in either direction.

Plus: Nate Silver’s World Cup model gets a shoutout, Barnard Bulletin earns Oracle of the Week, and Alex tees up the coming conversation with Andrew Tobias on Ohio politics, AI data centers, and the Sherrod Brown/John Husted race.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.