Copper Weekly is back for episode sixteen, and after months of near-relentless record highs, the market finally took a breather. Mike and Albert unpack a sharp pullback driven by tariff-delay speculation, hotter US inflation data, and a dollar rally, before digging into why the underlying story of an artificial, US-driven tightness remains fully intact.
In this episode:
Why Prices Fell — A Reuters report suggesting US copper tariffs could be pushed back until after the November midterms, combined with hotter-than-expected inflation and a stronger dollar, pulled the LME three-month price down sharply from recent highs. Albert explains why the market's swift reaction is, in his view, a sign of rational pricing rather than the "odd" behaviour seen in recent months.
Would a Delay Really Help Affordability? — Albert makes the case that copper semi-products are already tariffed, so a delay to a cathode tariff may do little for real-world affordability, while the genuine driver of high prices, prolonged uncertainty itself, would remain unresolved.
Booked and On the Water — Despite the pullback, US cathode imports are expected to stay elevated through at least October, with shipping data from Chile, Peru and Africa pointing to continued heavy flows regardless of near-term tariff headlines.
The Real Global Balance — Benchmark's numbers show a healthy global surplus in both 2025 and 2026, but once material flowing into US inventory is stripped out, the picture flips to a meaningful ex-US deficit. Albert walks through why this split explains why the market outside the US feels tighter than the headline numbers suggest.
What Does the Exit Look Like? — Albert argues that any form of tariff clarity is ultimately bearish for LME prices, whether that means a tariff being confirmed, ruled out, or delayed. He flags a delayed implementation as the most disruptive scenario of all, one that could trigger an even larger rush of material into the US before the tariff takes effect.
New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes.
Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.
Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market.
To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper
You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters
For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com
