Copper Weekly returns for episode seventeen, with copper clawing back much of the ground it lost the week before and pushing back towards its all-time high. Mike and Albert dig into China's role in the recovery, question whether a widely reported mine supply contraction really holds up, and look ahead to a potentially pivotal week of US-China diplomacy.
In this episode:
China Leads the Bounce — Import premiums into China hit a four-year high, with nearly 30,000 tonnes of LME stock cancelled in Asia over the past week on genuine physical demand. Albert explains why dips below $14,000/t have repeatedly triggered buying interest, and why that pattern may be tied to Golden Week positioning as much as price opportunism.
Is Mine Supply Really Contracting? — Recent coverage has suggested mined copper output could fall year-on-year for the first time in some time. Albert explains why Benchmark isn't yet seeing that in its own numbers, pointing to a stronger seasonal second half and the ongoing recovery from last year's disruptions at Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula and El Teniente.
Scrap's Growing but Limited Role — With refined production holding up despite softer mine growth, Albert and Mike explore how higher prices draw scrap onto the market, why China's maturing infrastructure cycle is becoming a meaningful source of recycled material, and why scrap alone can't be relied upon to close a growing demand gap.
The Week Ahead — All eyes turn to Washington, where Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are set to meet. Albert flags the potential for any shift, positive or negative, in US-China trade relations to move the copper price meaningfully, even as the market has recently shrugged off other bearish signals like the Fed's rate rise.
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Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.
Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market.
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For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com
