Copper Weekly returns for episode fifteen, with the LME three-month price notching yet another all-time high. But this week Albert takes a step back and asks the harder question: is any of this actually justified? A candid, somewhat blunt discussion follows on frothy sentiment, record US imports, and why H1 production disruptions were already priced in long before the headlines caught up.
In this episode:
Another Record, But Why? — With copper up over 50% since November, Albert makes the case that nothing fundamental has changed enough to justify the move. Of the many market participants Benchmark has spoken to since prices began climbing, only one has offered a genuine justification for levels above $14,000/t.
A Self-Reinforcing News Cycle — Known disruptions at Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula and El Teniente keep resurfacing in press coverage well after the market has already absorbed them. Albert explains why big, familiar mine names make for a stickier narrative than a collection of smaller, less newsworthy outages.
H1 Production Results, Unpacked — Global mined output came in weaker in H1, but Albert argues this was already known and already priced in. He walks through why H2 typically outperforms H1 seasonally, and why this year should be no exception.
Where's the Real Deficit? — With an estimated 1.4 million tonnes of excess copper sitting in US warehouses since the start of the Trump administration, Albert questions how the market can genuinely be tight in aggregate. Strong scrap generation and robust cathode production add further weight to the case that physical material is not actually hard to find.
Record US Imports — July saw 223kt of copper cathode imported into the US, roughly three to five times a typical month and a clear record. Albert explains why this build-up could just as easily create "artificial looseness" if the flow ever reverses.
The Week Ahead — With the market approaching the third Wednesday of the month once again, Albert flags the cash-to-one-month spread as the key thing to watch, and doesn't rule out the cash price pushing beyond $15,000/t if backwardation reopens.
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Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.
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