Copper Weekly returns with a longer-than-usual pre-LME Week special. Mike and Albert work through the five themes dominating meetings in London and set to shape conversations across LME Week: record-low treatment charges, European cathode premiums, US tariff uncertainty, long-term supply gap fears, and the question hanging over every meeting, why copper is still so expensive.
In this episode:
Treatment Charges in Free Fall - Spot TCs have dropped to around minus $240/t, with some deals now done at a discount to the index. Albert explains the smelter overcapacity behind it, Indonesia’s export restrictions, and why Benchmark puts the marginal smelter’s breakeven well above that level. With annual benchmark talks about to begin, he also looks at whether a split or broken benchmark system is on the cards, and why side terms such as gold payables could matter as much as the headline number.
Cathode Premiums - Aurubis’s 2027 European premium has landed at $347/t. Albert explains why he wasn’t surprised, why last year’s contract rounds favoured buyers who secured units early, and what Codelco’s offer and Asian premiums might look like when Chinese buyers have been far less accepting of high levels.
Tariff Uncertainty and the US Stock Build - Albert forecasts US cathode imports above 800kt this year, adding to an estimated 1.7 to 1.8Mt of stock built up since the current administration took office. The conversation covers whether imports slow into 2027, whether some of that stock is genuinely new or simply repositioned from elsewhere in the supply chain, and why timing around the US midterms matters.
Fears of a Supply Gap - Albert argues the supply gap has always been a theoretical construct rather than a forecast deficit, and explains why the DRC, Chinese investment, scrap and weak Chinese construction demand all complicate the shortage narrative. He also gives a sceptical view of some AI demand forecasts.
Why Is the Price So High? - Benchmark’s forecasts sit below some recent bank views, with 2026 averaging around $13,700/t and a lower figure expected next year. Albert explains the fundamentals-led case, while acknowledging that the tariff could push prices either way.
The Week Ahead - With the LME in backwardation and the third Wednesday of the month approaching, Albert flags the potential for volatility during LME Week itself.
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Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.
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