AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird 11 came in nominal and batch 3 is in orbit. Kook breaks down the ASTS T-Mobile deal bet and more.
Kook opens by reacting to the news that BlueBird 11 was nominal, walking through the competing theories about whether the satellite was stuck and why the deployment record for AST SpaceMobile stays perfect. He argues the flawless execution reflects a military-grade approach to testing and reliability, and covers the launch of batch 3 (BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16) on another SpaceX flight, with more launches expected soon.
Kook then lays out why he believes a T-Mobile deal is imminent, pointing to the completed MNO joint venture, T-Mobile scrubbing Starlink content from its website, new FCC filings, Grain spectrum, and the Ligado docket. He also explains why he sees Viasat and other would-be direct-to-cell competitors as lacking the people, prime contractors, designs and regulatory approvals to compete with ASTS.
The episode wraps with Sirius XM's COO joining the company, the vertical opportunity of tracking cows over direct-to-cell, satellites in the military kill chain, M&A hiring, and how ASTS stock has returned about 35% a year since the SPAC despite a 90% drawdown.
00:00 Introduction and sound check
00:38 BlueBird 11 nominal reaction
01:43 Perfect deployment record
04:01 The Kill Chain and military-grade assets
06:54 Abel's execution and team
08:56 Batch 3 launch BlueBird 14-16
10:54 Delays and the retail investor
12:31 Why competitors lack people
15:15 MNO joint venture and T-Mobile bet
17:19 T-Mobile scrubs Starlink
18:47 Mongolia and bear claims
21:22 Tracking cows and vertical TAM
24:57 Sirius XM COO joins ASTS
27:14 Spectrum, FCC and Ligado/Grain
30:03 Viasat leadership concerns
31:52 Iridium and Ligado docket
33:11 Satellites and the kill chain
36:18 M&A hiring and SpaceX
38:49 ASTS returns since the SPAC
40:30 Closing and stablecoin research
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