ASTS stock sold off after SpaceX bought spectrum. Kook explains why it may be good news for AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-cell plan.
Kook breaks down a brutal week for ASTS stock, where leveraged traders got hammered by a momentum selloff, a delayed Blue Origin, and confusion around SpaceX. He argues that SpaceX buying low-band spectrum and pivoting to a B2C Starlink mobile strategy removes it as a B2B competitor to AST SpaceMobile. Along the way, Kook covers the State Department's J-LEO announcement with Rakuten, Brazil spectrum, Elon's fight with India, and why data sovereignty could favor ASTS internationally.
The discussion then turns to the major U.S. carriers. Kook covers the so-called non-Elon club JV, T-Mobile distancing itself from Starlink, One New Zealand's possible switch, and Tim Farrar's view on the delays SpaceX now faces. He also compares the Starship launch math against the 243-satellite ASTS constellation, notes the FCC's spectrum moves for supplemental coverage from space, and looks at the SDA test and Golden Dome angle. The episode closes with New Glenn returning to the pad and why the market sometimes gets it wrong.
00:00 Introduction
00:21 Last Week's Horror Show for ASTS
01:39 Leverage Pain and the Drawdown
03:32 Weekend Diligence and Code Red Update
05:15 Satellites Arrive at the Cape
06:38 State Department Highlights J-LEO and Rakuten
10:50 The Control the Narrative Rant
14:00 Brazil Spectrum Win
15:24 Elon vs India and Data Sovereignty
18:09 SpaceX Buys Low-Band Spectrum
24:48 Did ASTS Miss the Spectrum?
27:48 Can Starlink Mobile Compete With the MNOs?
33:22 Analysts Weigh In
35:43 Tim Farrar and the Starship Launch Math
39:12 The Non-Elon Club JV
40:28 T-Mobile Distances Itself From SpaceX
45:32 FCC Moves and the Physics Advantage
48:35 New Glenn Returns to the Pad
50:41 When the Market Gets It Wrong
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