AST SpaceMobile ASTS: Anpanman breaks down the AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile telco JV and B. Riley's $85 to $65 downgrade.
Anpanman digs into the newly announced joint venture between AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile and explains why he believes it squarely fits AST SpaceMobile and was formed to counter Starlink. He covers the pooling of scarce low-band spectrum, open standards versus proprietary networks, the regulatory path through the DOJ and FCC, and why direct-to-cell competitors like Amazon and Iridium don't fit the JV's model.
Next, Anpanman reviews the new Chief Commercial Officer hire, Wayne Thorson, and goes point by point through the B. Riley downgrade of ASTS stock. Topics include satellite count and capex, spectrum needs in Europe and the US, GRAIN Management's 800 MHz spectrum, the 1.6 GHz FCC push, and pricing pressure from the Viasat and Space42 Equitas JV.
The episode wraps with a live Q&A covering Iridium's FCC opposition, New Glenn launch concerns, the J-LEO and Rakuten JV, and Anpanman's speculation on the Bluebird 14, 15 and 16 Falcon 9 launch window.
00:00 Introduction
00:46 Telco JV Announcement Overview
02:20 JV Built to Counter Starlink
06:43 Pooling Low-Band Spectrum
10:35 Open Competition and Regulatory Language
14:23 Open Standards and Bent-Pipe Architecture
17:37 Starlink, Amazon, and Iridium Proprietary Networks
21:12 Buyer Cartel Fears and Pricing
28:20 DOJ Second Request and Timeline
29:26 New CCO Wayne Thorson
37:05 B. Riley Downgrade Breakdown
42:39 Spectrum: Europe, GRAIN, and 1.6 GHz
50:42 Equitas and Pricing Pressure
59:40 Starlink Competition and Distribution
1:04:48 Q&A: IoT, Catalysts, and Acquisition
1:09:12 Iridium FCC Opposition
1:13:18 New Glenn Launch Questions
1:19:48 J-LEO and Rakuten JV
1:24:51 Bluebirds 14-16 Launch Speculation
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