AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) dipped under $40 on margin calls. Anpanman breaks down the macro, leverage, and why the thesis hasn't changed.
Anpanman walks through a brutal week for ASTS stock and the wider space sector, tying the selloff to a hot CPI print, rising rates, neocloud stress (CoreWeave CDS near 1180), and forced deleveraging. He explains why the space sector looks derated, how margin calls cascade, and why Rocket Lab's Neutron delay hit sentiment across space names.
Anpanman then re-underwrites the AST SpaceMobile thesis: Bluebird 11 unfolded successfully, the strategic backdrop for direct-to-cell has improved with Starlink entering the MNO fight, and Deutsche Telekom's CEO is warning other carriers off Starlink. He covers Ligado spectrum, FCC and Department of War timing, the MNO CapEx savings story, and SpaceX's AI compute and Falcon 9/Starship tradeoffs.
The episode closes with practical advice on avoiding margin and options in high-beta names, taking profits, and protecting your mental health. Anpanman also answers live questions on funding runway for 100 satellites, strategic investment, Blue Origin New Glenn, and Ligado valuation.
00:00 Introduction
01:01 CPI selloff and market recap
01:24 Neocloud stress and CoreWeave CDS
02:40 Space sector derated as rates rise
06:39 Deleveraging and AST under $40
07:12 Rocket Lab Neutron delay and tribalism
09:42 Why options are tough in this macro
12:15 Management at the mercy of the market
15:40 Ligado and SpaceX deal rumors
19:50 What has actually changed for AST
20:51 Starlink, Deutsche Telekom and MNOs
22:04 MNO CapEx savings and FCC hybrid rules
24:40 Leverage horror stories
29:22 SpaceX, Falcon 9 and Starship
35:44 Playing defensively and taking profits
41:20 Q&A: funding runway
43:49 Q&A: Ligado valuation and approval
45:24 Closing message
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