Elena Rybakina vs Naomi Osaka — full preview, head-to-head breakdown and prediction for their FOURTH ROUND clash at the 2026 US Open. A Toronto rematch just four weeks on, with a quarterfinal and the World No. 1 ranking both in play.
Elena Rybakina is the second seed, the reigning Australian Open champion, and she is INCHING CLOSER TO WORLD NO. 1 with every round in New York. She has been efficient all week, coming through American wild card Thea Frodin and then Yuliia Starodubtseva 7-6, 6-3 to reach the last 16. She is also the form hard-court player on tour, and she is the reigning Canadian Open finalist — she went on from beating Osaka in Toronto to make the final there.
Naomi Osaka looks like her old self. The four-time Grand Slam champion — a two-time US Open winner — has been building all summer: a run to the DC Open semifinals in Washington, a quarterfinal in Toronto, and now her deepest New York run in years. She beat Hailey Baptiste, then Daria Kasatkina to reach a Grand Slam round of 16 for the first time since 2021, and survived a genuine test against 23rd seed Elise Mertens 6-3, 3-6, 7-5 in 2 hours and 38 minutes, squandering three match points before closing it out.
And this is the rematch. Just four weeks ago in the Toronto quarterfinals — their FIRST EVER meeting — Osaka won the opening set before Rybakina came back to take it 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4 across 2 hours and 33 minutes, firing 13 aces and saving four break points in the decider. Osaka was a set up and right there. She gets another crack, on the court where she has won two majors.
🎾 IN THIS VIDEO
- Exactly where the Toronto match turned and whether it repeats
- Rybakina's serve numbers and Osaka's return position
- What the No. 1 ranking pressure could do
- Prediction, scoreline, and the quarterfinal that follows
📊 MATCH INFO
Tournament: 2026 US Open (Grand Slam)
Round: Fourth Round / Round of 16 — Women's Singles
Players: Elena Rybakina (KAZ, No. 2 seed) vs Naomi Osaka (JPN)
Head-to-head: Rybakina leads 1-0 (Toronto 2026 QF, 4-6 7-6(5) 6-4)
Surface: Outdoor Hard
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York
💬 Rybakina or Osaka? Predicted scoreline in the comments.
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⚠️ Independent tennis analysis and commentary. Predictions are opinion only and not betting advice. Not affiliated with the USTA, the WTA or the US Open.
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