Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul — full preview, head-to-head breakdown and prediction for their FOURTH ROUND clash at the 2026 US Open at Flushing Meadows, New York. History on the line for both men.
Carlos Alcaraz looks like he's finally through the rust. The defending champion — who arrived in New York having not played competitive singles since a wrist injury at the Barcelona Open in mid-April — dismantled Wu Yibing 6-3, 6-4, 6-1 on Arthur Ashe to extend his personal-best GRAND SLAM WIN STREAK TO 17 MATCHES. At 23, he is bidding to become the first man to successfully defend the US Open since Roger Federer's five straight from 2004 to 2008.
Tommy Paul is chasing history of his own. The No. 20 seed came through a brutal five-setter against Alexander Bublik 6-4, 3-6, 6-7(4), 6-1, 6-3 to match his career-best US Open run, and a win here would make him the ONLY ACTIVE AMERICAN MAN to reach the quarterfinals at all four Grand Slams — he already has Australian Open (2023, 2025), Roland-Garros (2025) and Wimbledon (2024). Only New York is missing.
The head-to-head is a problem for the American: Alcaraz leads 6-2 and has won their LAST FIVE MEETINGS. Paul also has significantly more mileage in his legs after nearly four hours against Bublik, while Alcaraz has spent barely any time on court in his last two rounds.
But this is Arthur Ashe on Labor Day weekend, with a home crowd behind Paul and a defending champion still not certain he's back to his best. Full tactical breakdown and my prediction below.
🎾 IN THIS VIDEO
- Whether Alcaraz is genuinely back to full level
- Why Paul's five-setter could decide this match
- The tactical pattern behind Alcaraz's five straight wins
- Prediction, scoreline, and the road to the semifinals
📊 MATCH INFO
Tournament: 2026 US Open (Grand Slam)
Round: Fourth Round / Round of 16 — Men's Singles
Players: Carlos Alcaraz (ESP, 2nd seed, defending champion) vs Tommy Paul (USA, 20th seed)
Head-to-head: Alcaraz leads 6-2 — and has won the last five
Surface: Outdoor Hard
Venue: Arthur Ashe Stadium, Flushing Meadows, New York
💬 Can Tommy Paul do it? Predicted scoreline in the comments.
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