Episode 43: DDHQ’s Governors Forecast!

Midterms aren’t just about the race for Congress. Thirty-six states will also elect their governors, making this the main venue for deciding who will lead most of the 50 states. With this in mind, Decision Desk HQ recently added a gubernatorial forecast to better gauge what’s happening in these important races. Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Data Scientist Maddisen Murrell and Data Science intern Jake Marks to talk about the new forecast. They discussed how it works and dug into what the forecast says about 2026’s most competitive and interesting gubernatorial contests.

---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Governor Forecast: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/governor► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq

---

CHAPTERS2:16 Introducing Madison, Jake, and the 2026 map3:57 Governor vs. Senate dynamics, highlighting Texas10:05 Role of prediction markets in governor forecast17:10 Generic ballot and the electoral environment19:45 Candidate quality and Oregon’s race23:43 Georgia: polls vs. Rick Jackson’s money31:05 Kansas: the GOP’s best pickup chance35:55 Iowa: A Dem governor-GOP Senate split?40:57 Nevada: Gov. Joe Lombardo has slight edge43:46 Ohio: Polls and markets suggest Democrats have a shot48:12 Alaska: Multiple candidates from same party

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com