Forecast Update: Democrats have more than 50% chance of flipping both Senate & House

DDHQ friend Chris Cillizza, who runs So What on Substack, was joined by Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley and Data Scientist Maddisen Murrell to talk about Decision Desk HQ’s 2026 election forecast. The electoral environment has trended toward Democrats, which has helped make them clearer favorites in the House and very slight favorites in the battle for the Senate. More broadly, Democrats now have just above a 1 in 2 chance of sweeping both chambers. We’ll be doing regular updates about the forecast with Chris from now and until the election, so watch for future chats!

► Chris Cillizza on X: https://x.com/ChrisCillizza► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► So What: https://chriscillizza.substack.com

---► Find our forecast on DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► JOIN OUR OFFICIAL DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS

0:00 Intro and overall forecast situation8:55 What if the polls are wrong?13:26 The perfect tool for Election Night17:02 Kansas Senate21:00 South Carolina Senate23:05 Arkansas Senate24:50 Florida Governor27:17 Texas Governor29:19 Texas Railroad Commissioner33:02 The forecast toplines

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com