Forecast Update: Is a blue wave rising or cresting?

DDHQ friend Chris Cillizza, who runs So What on Substack, was joined by Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley and Data Scientist Maddisen Murrell to talk about Decision Desk HQ’s 2026 election forecast. Democrats now look more likely to capture the House, where they average a 235-200 majority across 1 million forecast simulations. But the battle for the Senate remains far more up in the air, as does a key gubernatorial race in Georgia. We’ll be doing a couple more weekly updates about the forecast with Chris ahead of the election, so keep an eye out for those episodes!

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► Chris Cillizza on X: https://x.com/ChrisCillizza► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► So What: https://chriscillizza.substack.com

---► Find our forecast on DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s official Discord server: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS

0:00 Intro and how the forecast works3:15 Where the House and Senate forecasts stand10:15 How many seats could each party win?17:00 Mississippi Senate23:02 Texas Governor31:28 Georgia Governor34:32 New York’s 17th District40:13 Chances that Democrats sweep Senate & House47:18 The perfect tool to watch the midterms

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