State Street’s $6 trillion team is wrestling with a puzzling surge in 10-year Treasury yields—now at 2017 levels—thanks to Iran tensions, oil spikes, and stubborn AI-driven economic resilience. Despite market bets on Fed rate cuts, State Street still leans toward eventual lower yields, forecasting a 2027 rate drop as inflation cools and growth slows. Global conflicts haven’t rattled the U.S. economy much, and bond strategists are quietly betting on longer-term bonds as a smart play—even as the Fed holds steady for now.
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