Hugh Robertson reckons the world changed for Aussie investors on 12 May. For years the playbook was simple. Earn well, borrow, negatively gear into residential property and let the market do the rest. The budget took a fair chunk of that off the table, and now a lot of people with money to put to work are asking the same question. What's the play now? Hugh runs Centaur Financial Services, sits on the Barron's Top 100 adviser list, and has been a mate of Ben's for over a decade, which means he doesn't get to be diplomatic. In this one he walks through exactly what his firm changed in client portfolios after the budget, why they've gone underweight Australian shares, and the asset classes they're now allocating to that they never touched before. We also get into the commercial property pitch flooding everyone's feed, and why two emerging markets ETFs can hold completely different countries. Hugh explains what big tech raising debt tells you about where the US market sits, and puts Ben through the maths question about a 50% fall that trips up almost everyone. Then the honest bit on stock picking, why only around one in ten active managers beats the index over a decade, and what Hugh thinks matters most for investors over the next six to 12 months.
CHAPTERS (raw recording times, re-map to the final cut before publishing) 00:00 Intro and the list that actually counts 01:27 The world changed on 12 May 03:38 Where ambitious investors go now 04:06 The commercial property trap 06:48 What Centaur changed in its portfolios after the budget 08:17 The nanny state and the aspirational investor 11:00 How much the CGT changes drove the shift to global 12:11 The fully franked dividend obsession
13:12 Total return and where wealth sits once trusts are gone 14:26 ETF, managed fund or direct 15:17 Investing at all-time highs 16:58 AI after the picks and shovels 18:49 Emerging markets and the South Korea trade 20:09 Two emerging markets ETFs, two very different baskets 21:01 Staying in the US and backing the jockey 22:06 Same profit, half the price 22:47 Infrastructure as inflation protection 24:09 Locked-up money and closed-end funds 24:44 Private markets, evergreen funds and secondaries 25:59 Comparison is the thief of joy 26:42 Is the US market overcooked? 28:10 The canary in the coal mine 29:20 SpaceX, IPOs and Aussie super money 31:07 Where the opportunity actually is 33:47 Global small caps and the information edge 36:21 Only one in ten active managers beats the index 37:22 Accumulators want volatility, retirees don't 38:09 The maths test almost everyone fails 39:17 GFC lessons and the free lunch 40:44 When DIY stops making sense 42:52 Boring portfolio, interesting life 43:34 Don't get mad at your adviser when markets fall 45:06 The most important thing for the next six to 12 months 46:29 Why not to ask AI for financial advice
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