Everyone's calling it a crash. Louis Christopher runs SQM Research, one of Australia's biggest property data houses, and he says that word is wrong. What we're in is the largest downturn in 10 to 15 years, but the one ingredient every genuine housing crash has ever needed is missing here.
Louis breaks down where the market actually is, which cities are falling hardest, and which pockets are barely moving at all. We get into what the budget's tax changes are really doing to investor behaviour, why rents have stalled when everyone expected them to spike, and what he'd buy if he were putting money in today.
WHAT YOU'LL GET OUT OF IT
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The difference between a correction and a crash, and why a 10% property fall hurts more than a 10% sharemarket fall
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Why Australia isn't set up for a US or Ireland style collapse
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The city by city forecasts for the rest of the year
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What happened to rents after the negative gearing changes, and why the answer is more concerning than it looks
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Which markets are holding up, and the ones carrying the most risk right now
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How long this downturn runs, and what the long term growth rate looks like from here
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Whether the 6.8% long term average still holds
CHAPTERS
00:00 Intro
00:25 Where the property market actually is right now
02:24 Crash or correction, and why the difference matters
03:15 Why a 10% property fall hurts more than a 10% sharemarket fall
04:00 How APRA and the RBA really behave in a downturn
05:00 How long downturns last, and why this one is structural
06:30 What the budget tax changes did to the investor maths
08:45 The flow-on to the economy and state budgets
11:25 Rents went up $2 a week, and why that is the worrying part
13:00 Which suburbs are most exposed
16:18 Semi-rural and lifestyle property, and the risk nobody prices
18:09 Airbnb income and the wealth effect
19:00 The city by city forecasts
21:08 Adelaide and Perth
26:02 What actually drives values over the long term
28:37 How people are coping with record rents
30:17 Population growth and the 6.8% question
34:52 Where Louis put his own money
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