Kalshi Co-founder and COO Luana Lopes Lara on the Long Fight for Regulated Prediction Markets

Ali speaks with Luana Lopes Lara, Co-founder and COO of Kalshi, a financial exchange used to trade on outcomes in politics, economics, weather, and more. Long before Kalshi was valued as a $22 billion juggernaut, Luana and co-founder Tarek Mansour spent years trying to persuade the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) that election markets could operate legally. After repeated rejections, layoffs, and a company that felt closer to death than success, she made the extraordinary call to sue the federal government. Luana focuses on the years when almost no one believed Kalshi would make it. She reflects on growing up in Brazil, intense training as a professional ballerina, and choosing MIT over safer paths. Luana opens up about the emotional cost of being an optimistic founder when times are tough, why she believed suing the CFTC was the only path forward, and how she convinced Tarek, the investors, and board to take this chance. Despite retaliation and delays, Kalshi ultimately won in court, shifting the power dynamic and enabling major expansion. Luana shares what she has learned about conviction, resilience, and knowing when to go all in.