Mobile vs Steam, the rise of DTC, and why market forecasts may be missing the real story

Adam and John Wright compare the current realities of mobile and Steam game publishing, with a focus on why the two markets demand very different strategies. They also dig into the biggest blind spot in current industry forecasts: direct-to-consumer revenue, which may be reshaping how investors and analysts read the gaming market.Speakers covered

• John Wright — Explains how mobile publishing used to be more predictable, why that changed after ATT, and why Steam is not an easier substitute
• Adam — Pushes on the market-size comparison, questions the shift from mobile to Steam, and raises concerns about missing revenue in industry forecasts

Key topics

• Mobile and Steam are not interchangeable markets, even if they can look similar from the outside
• Mobile publishing used to be driven by clearer KPIs, organic lift, and more calculable UA unit economics
• Post-ATT mobile became harder to forecast, with fewer new breakout games and larger drop-off points in the funnel
• Older games now make up a larger share of mobile revenue
• More of the new game pipeline appears to be coming from APAC rather than the West
• Steam is a different business, with premium pricing, heavier reliance on influencers, and far less visibility into its algorithm
• Hoping for a Steam breakout is not a strategy because success there is less predictable and depends heavily on community momentum
• Direct-to-consumer revenue may be missing from current market models and forecasts
• Negative industry sentiment may partly result from data tools failing to capture DTC performance

• • Analysts and investors may be making decisions without full visibility into where gaming revenue comes from