China's games market hit $51.8B in 2025 — but the export numbers are the real story. Adam Smart and John Wright on ARPU, casual 4X, 996, Steam bans and why China now out-executes the West.
China's games market hit $51.8B in 2025 and is forecast to pass $59B by 2030. But the domestic number is only half the story: Chinese publishers now account for 35% of all user acquisition spend outside China, and Chinese-developed games generated $20.4B overseas last year, with H1 2026 alone up 30% year on year.
In episode 3, Adam Smart and John Wright work through the Niko Partners data and disagree about whether China and the US are really at revenue parity (John isn't buying it). From there: why genre mix and ARPU explain most of the gap, the 10–15 year head start China has on free-to-play, how a Steam ban and a lot of VPNs distort the data everyone is quoting, WeChat instant games at roughly 20% of the domestic market, the casual 4X onboarding hook that finally brought CPIs down, and Tencent telling two studios to build the same game with winner takes all.
Also in this one: why competition breeds excellence and what that means for Turkey, the 996 work ethic conversation and where it stops being reasonable, what the Nordics still do better than anyone, and what Japanese whisky has to do with the whole thing.
Chapters
(00:00) Cold open: are we merging into one person?
(01:24) Why China, and what the Niko Partners numbers say
(02:53) $51.8B, 769M players, $70+ ARPU
(03:06) China vs the US: is it really parity?
(03:46) Chinese publishers = 35% of UA spend outside China
(05:16) Why China's scale shouldn't surprise anyone
(06:25) Genre mix: hardcore vs casual, and what it does to ARPU
(07:36) Steam is banned — VPNs and the data blind spot
(08:56) Web stores and DTC: China got there years ago
(09:13) How Western studios actually enter China
(11:35) WeChat instant games: around 20% of the market
(12:15) Trying to pay cash for a curry in Beijing
(13:07) The export story: $20.4B overseas, H1 2026 up 30%
(14:12) Strategy is half of China's overseas top-100 revenue
(14:36) Honor of Kings is the biggest game in the world
(15:16) Competition breeds excellence — and Turkey is next (16:26) Casual 4X: how they solved the CPI problem
(17:48) 42% of global PC revenue, and the free-to-play head start
(19:42) Live ops, gacha and meta mini-games
(20:04) McDonald's campaigns: games as mainstream culture
(21:14) 996 and the work ethic conversation
(21:52) Tencent: two studios, same game, winner takes all
(23:39) Nordics creativity vs Chinese execution
(24:15) Are Chinese companies better at the business of games?
(25:27) "We spent 20 years cracking China. China cracked us."
(26:06) Japanese whisky, cricket and tiddlywinks
(26:31) Wrap, and the TikTok episode we owe you
Mentioned in this episode
- Niko Partners, China games market forecast
- AppsFlyer, State of Gaming
- Newzoo, global PC games revenue
