Aznaur Midov, author of DEBT SERIOUS, joins me to talk about where private credit is actually starting to crack — and where the bearish case may be getting ahead of itself.
Aznaur spent years lending to sponsor-backed software companies, so we spend a lot of time on the part of private credit I’m most worried about: software. We get into AI disruption, the 2027–2028 maturity wall, amend-and-extends, recoveries, CLOs, BDCs, leverage and what happens when lenders and private equity sponsors eventually stop being on the same side.
We agree on a lot, but differ on how ugly the next few years get. Aznaur thinks sponsors and lenders have more ability to work through the maturity wall than I do. I think AI creates enough uncertainty in software that a lot of credits simply won’t be refinanceable at anything close to today’s marks.
A good debate with someone who actually underwrote this stuff before everyone decided private credit was an asset class you had to own.
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