SoftBank’s AI gamble is under intense scrutiny as it prepares to reveal first-quarter earnings, with billions already poured into OpenAI and other AI ventures. Founder Masayoshi Son dismisses AI bubble fears, but investors are nervous as the company’s stock plummets and debt costs soar. While SoftBank hit record profits last year, its reliance on loans backed by investments—especially amid looming debt maturities—raises red flags. S&P’s improved credit outlook hinges on Arm’s rising value, but analysts warn that OpenAI’s startup risks and global competition could derail the plan. With AI valuations shaky and Chinese rivals poised to undercut prices, SoftBank’s survival depends on OpenAI’s ability to secure massive new funding—possibly via a trillion-dollar IPO—or face a cash crunch that could unravel its entire AI strategy.
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