Professor Robert J. Gordon, one of the world’s leading economists on productivity and long-run economic growth, joins Alan O’Sullivan to examine why the extraordinary gains of the past two centuries may be becoming harder to repeat.
In Part 1, Gordon explains the difference between economic growth and productivity, traces the three major industrial revolutions, and discusses why the period from 1920 to 1970 delivered such exceptional productivity growth. He also revisits the central thesis of The Rise and Fall of American Growth and explains why productivity growth has slowed since the mid-2000s.
The conversation then turns to the major headwinds facing advanced economies: ageing populations, rising public debt, inequality and the diminishing contribution of education to productivity. Gordon also discusses the contrast between mature economies and faster-growing developing countries, as well as the role of energy, electrification and technology in future growth.
Topics include:
• Economic growth vs productivity
• The three industrial revolutions
• Why 1920–1970 was an exceptional period for productivity
• The post-2005 productivity slowdown
• Demographics and ageing populations
• Government debt and interest rates
• Inequality and living standards
• Education and graduate underemployment
• Growth in China, India and the developing world
• Energy, electrification and the transition away from fossil fuels
Part 2 continues the discussion with artificial intelligence, white-collar employment, education, demographics, retirement, immigration and advice for young people entering the labour market.
Ted talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYHd7rpOTe8
Amazon UK – Robert J. Gordon, The Rise and Fall of American Growth
