The Bank of England warns that renewed Middle East conflict could spike inflation in the UK, potentially pushing it to 4.5% by 2027 — forcing another interest rate hike. Despite recent progress in curbing inflation, global shocks like energy volatility, AI investments, or even El Niño could derail stability. The MPC split on holding rates steady, with one member urging a hike due to escalating tensions. While the new PM’s cost-of-living measures may offer minor relief, the real risk remains unpredictable global events shaping the UK’s economy.
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