The Bank of England stunned economists by holding rates steady at 3.75%, though three MPC members—including Catherine Mann—voted to hike to 4%, citing global instability. Inflation is now forecast to peak at 3.2% this year before easing below 2% by early 2028, a slightly softer outlook but still elevated. Governor Bailey stressed the UK’s energy price cap buffers inflation from global shocks, and while the committee isn’t leaning toward hikes, Middle East tensions keep the situation fluid. Quantitative tightening’s impact on yields remains modest, with further discussion expected in September.
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