Rep. David Valadao faces a perilous reelection bid in California’s increasingly Democratic Central Valley district, where Latino voters—now largely turning away from Trump—are reshaping the political landscape. Though Valadao has long won by focusing on local issues and projecting independence, redistricting and heavy outside spending have intensified the race. His challenger, Randy Villegas, is capitalizing on voter concerns over healthcare costs and Valadao’s past votes, even as Valadao tries to pivot away from Trump while still appealing to GOP voters. This tight contest could signal a major shift in Latino voting behavior—and may ripple across future elections.

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