CME's Terry Duffy and Kalshi traded public insults over prediction markets. Ram, Austin, Chris, and Bitwise's Gordon Grant break down who's winning.
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CME chairman Terry Duffy and Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara traded barbed insults at the CFTC's first-ever innovation advisory committee meeting, with Duffy warning that prediction markets invite manipulation and Lopes Lara firing back that CME should learn about efficiency.
Austin Campbell, Ram Ahluwalia, and Chris Perkins are joined by Bitwise portfolio manager Gordon Grant to referee the fight, weighing whether the incumbent exchange or the upstart prediction market has the stronger claim as CFTC chair Mike Selig moves to bring platforms like Hyperliquid onshore.
They also cover Bitcoin pushing toward $80,000 as Scott Bessent's Treasury long-end buybacks jolt bond market volatility, stress signals building in the TIPS market, Gordon's pitch for parametric insurance as prediction markets' next frontier, and a mystery 20-cent open-weight AI model outscoring GPT and Claude at a fraction of the price.
Whether prediction markets graduate from novelty bets into real financial infrastructure may come down to who wins this fight.
Hosts
Austin Campbell - Host of Bits + Bips, Founder of Zero Knowledge Group, and Adjunct Professor at NYU Stern
Ram Ahluwalia - Co-host of Bits + Bips and CEO of Lumida
Chris Perkins - Co-host of Bits + Bips and Head of Franklin Crypto
Guest
Gordon Grant - Portfolio Manager and Head of Derivatives at Bitwise
Timestamps:
🎯 01:26 Bitcoin nears $80K as ETF inflows flip hard on Treasury's buyback plan
📊 04:35 Gordon on how Bessent linked Treasury vol to Bitcoin's own vol spike
🧾 17:10 Austin flags bizarre TIPS market stress as a sign fiscal imbalances are closer
🌊 19:43 Ram channels Ray Dalio: why bond vigilantes won't break the Treasury market
📣 26:48 1inch Aqua: see how shared liquidity works at https://1inch.com/aqua
🥊 28:14 CFTC's Duffy and Kalshi's Lopes Lara clash over prediction market oversight
☂️ 40:21 Gordon's pitch: parametric insurance as prediction markets' next frontier
🤖 47:55 The mystery 20-cent open-weight model outscoring GPT and Claude on coding
🏛️ 55:32 Chris on why AI data centers are becoming this cycle's rare bipartisan fight
🗳️ 57:33 Ram on why the anti-AI backlash is 'a very weak argument'
