Caila Schwartz, Head of Agentic Commerce Salesforce is Back! Holiday 2026, State of Ecommerce, Plus... “The Caila Five”

This week’s episode is a data deep dive… two of them, actually. Salesforce just dropped a back-to-back data release: the latest edition of its State of Commerce report and its Holiday 2026 predictions. Caila Schwartz, Salesforce’s newly minted Head of Agentic Commerce Shopper Insights, walks us through both. Think of it as a rearview mirror on the first half of 2026 and headlights into the holiday season, with agentic commerce showing up in nearly every number.

Highlights:

• 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟬% 𝗷𝘂𝗺𝗽: 15% of shoppers now start their buying journey with an LLM or agent, up from 5% last spring.
• 𝗛𝗮𝗹𝗳 𝗼𝗳 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀: About 50% have used a general-purpose LLM, social media agent, or branded agent somewhere in their buying journey in the past 12 months, a 67% increase over last year.
• 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴: Agentic search traffic converts at roughly 2.5–3.5%, about 2–3x overall conversion and far above social’s sub-1%.
• 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗻𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀: 74% of shoppers trust agent recommendations, and over 80% feel more confident in purchases made after interacting with a brand-owned agent like Rufus or Sparky.
• 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗽𝗼𝘁: Discovery is happening inside conversations that never send a click back to the brand site.
• 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮 𝗙𝗶𝘃𝗲: Salesforce’s Holiday 2026 predictions: non-human traffic, branded agents everywhere, social commerce acceleration, the store’s new hybrid role, and the free-shipping squeeze.
• 𝟮𝟬% 𝗻𝗼𝗻-𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰: This holiday, Salesforce predicts about one in five e-commerce visits will come from crawlers and agents, not people.
• 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗲: About a third of B2C orgs have agents deployed today, over half plan to deploy within six months, and by Cyber Week one in three e-commerce sites will have a branded agent on site.
• 𝗦𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝟵𝗫: Social commerce is predicted to grow nine times faster than traditional e-commerce this year, and it’s high-income shoppers, even more than Gen Z, saying they’ll buy in-app this holiday.
• 𝗛𝘆𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗱 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆: 37% of holiday dollars will be “hybrid sales” that rely on both digital and physical to close the deal, 80% of shoppers use their phone while standing in your store.
• 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗱𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗸: Four in five commerce pros say their tech stack grew over the last two years, making data unification the #1 barrier to good agents.

Caila brings the receipts, real numbers on a shift most of us are still trying to eyeball. We’ll get her back in the fall when the actual holiday forecast drops. Enjoy the conversation.

Timestamps:
 
06:30 Interview begins, Caila's new title
07:20 Caila's role and 12 years at Salesforce
08:30 Two reports: State of Commerce + Holiday predictions
09:30 State of Commerce methodology
12:50 What's new in this edition
14:45 The agentic discovery shift: 50%, 200%, 15%
17:25 Who's losing share in discovery
19:00 Faster than mobile or social ever moved
22:20 The measurability problem
25:20 Conversion: 2–3x better than average
27:10 Why shoppers lean on agents, by income
29:30 Trust: 74% and the 80% confidence stat
32:00 The branded-agent race
34:30 The #1 barrier: data unification
40:20 Caila Five #1: 20% non-human traffic
42:30 #2: One in three sites get a branded agent
43:15 #3: Social commerce grows 9x
44:25 #4: The store's new role 37% hybrid sales
46:20 #5: Free shipping and the K-shaped economy
47:30 Decoupled transactions deep dive
53:10 Top recos: unify data, turn on ACP

👉 Connect with Caila: https://www.linkedin.com/in/caila-schwartz/
👉 Learn more about Salesforce: https://www.salesforce.com/
👉 Check out the State of Ecommerce: https://www.salesforce.com/commerce/resources/state-of-commerce/
👉 Look at the Holiday 2026 Predictions: https://www.salesforce.com/blog/holiday-retail-predictions-2026/

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