What if the good times we grew up expecting were never coming back? In this episode of Matters of Consequence, Michael Beckley, a political scientist who measures the rise and fall of great powers, argues that the era of easy growth is over. The technological low-hanging fruit has been picked, populations are aging and shrinking, and the globalization that once lifted everyone is fragmenting into trade wars and blocs. The result, he says, is a stagnant order in which no great power is truly rising anymore, and yet everything feels more contested, not less.
Michael traces how this slowdown shows up everywhere at once, from growth rates that have roughly halved across most of the world to the debt, polarization and blame that follow in its wake. He explains why stagnation makes nations dangerous rather than calm, why peaking powers like China are more explosive in the short term even as their long-term prospects fade, and how his own thinking has evolved from Unrivaled to Danger Zone to his current work on the stagnant order. The conversation also turns to what this fragmented world asks of middle powers like Finland and of Europe more broadly, and it ends on a note that surprised him as much as it may surprise you: our ancestors would have killed to have our problems.
Why listen?
- Understand what actually ended the era of easy growth: slowing productivity, aging populations and fragmenting globalization.
- Explore why stagnation makes countries more dangerous, not less, from loss aversion and blame at home to nationalism and revanchism abroad.
- Learn why peaking powers are most explosive exactly when their long-term prospects start to fade.
- Examine what a world of blocs and paywalls asks of middle powers like Finland, and why picking a side may be the price of relevance.
- Discover why the strongest, most capable generation in history still has a real chance to avoid the mistakes of its grandparents.
Whether you are a policy maker, a business leader navigating a fragmenting world or simply someone who wonders why tomorrow stopped feeling better than today, Michael's perspective offers a sobering and strangely hopeful look at what comes after growth.
Keywords: stagnation, end of easy growth, great power competition, peaking powers, US-China relations, China, Russia, geopolitics, middle powers, Finland, European security, AI and productivity, geopolitical volatility, Michael Beckley, Unrivaled, Danger Zone, Matters of Consequence
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
