Neutral on Microsoft (MSFT) as of 2026-11-16: -70% FCF collapse. Microsoft spent 49% of its quarterly revenue on AI data centers, and free cash flow fell 70%. We work out its owner earnings, run a Graham-Buffett DCF and show why a Tier A business can still fail the price test.
Chapters
(0:00) Microsoft Classification and Stance
(1:00) The Thesis: Quality vs Price
(2:06) Business Model and Monetization
(2:26) Economic Moat and Peer Benchmarks
(3:29) Business Model and Monetization
(4:37) Catalysts vs Downside Risks
(5:22) The Capex Divergence
(7:43) A Decade of Compounding
(8:20) The Capex Divergence
(9:37) Valuation: Two-Stage DCF Range
(9:58) Catalysts vs Downside Risks
(11:23) The Thesis: Quality vs Price
(12:22) Capital Allocation: Buffett $1 Test
(14:28) Valuation: Two-Stage DCF Range
(16:49) Margin of Safety and Reverse DCF
(18:34) The Thesis: Quality vs Price
(19:38) Economic Moat and Peer Benchmarks
(20:15) Four-Gate Institutional Verdict
(21:19) The Capex Divergence
(21:59) Tools for Value Investors
(22:27) Get the free apps
Full open-source research report: https://research.deepvalues.ai/insights/2026-10-28-microsoft-deep-value-analysis/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=msft
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Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate.
