We read Anthropic's S-1 with a Graham-Dodd lens: a 3,300% headline growth rate, a growth slowdown in Q3, more than $800B in compute commitments and a single share that gives seven founders control. Then we look at where autonomous-vehicle economics look most durable, at least under the episode's assumptions.
Chapters
(0:00) A Deep Value Lens on AI and AVs
(1:05) Generative Euphoria vs Physical AI
(2:09) Diagnosing the Anthropic S-1 Headlines
(3:12) The Token Maxing Illusion
(6:09) Moat, Governance and Macro Risks
(8:15) Diagnosing the Anthropic S-1 Headlines
(9:38) The Iceberg of Capital Commitments
(10:39) Moat, Governance and Macro Risks
(13:23) Value Verdict: A Speculative Venture Bet
(14:41) AV Safety Value vs Headwinds
(15:38) The AV Competitive Matrix
(17:21) Geopolitics and the Moat of Geography
(17:40) AV Safety Value vs Headwinds
(18:22) The Picks and Shovels Strategy
(20:46) Value Verdict: A Speculative Venture Bet
(21:46) The Picks and Shovels Strategy
(22:26) Apps for the Intelligent Value Investor
(23:16) Get the free apps
DeepValues toolkit
• Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed): https://app.deepvalues.ai/letter?src=spotify&ref=anthropic_s1_red_flags_and_autonomous_ve
• Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614
• The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.buffett&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dmarket
• Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=market&utm_content=anthropic_s1_red_flags_and_autonomous_ve
• Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst: https://deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=market&utm_content=anthropic_s1_red_flags_and_autonomous_ve
• DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608
• Developer API for your AI agents: https://app.deepvalues.ai/developers?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=market&utm_content=anthropic_s1_red_flags_and_autonomous_ve
Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate.
• This episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/C_YY9sp3yjM
