Are young people really having less sex? Headlines about a “sex recession” suggest a dramatic decline—but what do the data actually show? In this episode, we trace that claim back to the research behind it—and find a story that’s far more nuanced than the headlines suggest. We examine large national surveys, including the General Social Survey and the National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior, and uncover how small analytical choices can completely change the story. Along the way, we tackle ordinal versus quantitative data, why averages can mislead, how logistic regression reframes the question, and what happens when researchers try to time-travel with statistics. Plus: the surprising role of extreme values, why “eight fewer sexual encounters per year” may not mean what you think, and whether young men and women are really following the same trends.



Statistical topics

  • Average vs distribution
  • Binary variables
  • Effect size vs statistical significance
  • Logistic regression
  • Measurement / operationalization
  • Ordinal variables
  • Outliers / extreme values
  • Self-reported datagoog
  • Social desirability bias
  • Variable coding / transformation



Methodological morals

  • “You shouldn't use data from people in their 80s to guess what they were doing in their 20s unless your data come with a time machine.”
  • “When extreme values drive the average, the average stops describing most people.”



References



Kristin and Regina’s online courses: 

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis 

Medical Statistics Certificate Program  

Writing in the Sciences 

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 

Programs that we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 


Find us on:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn &ReginaNuzzo.com

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (04:04) - Fact-Checking the Headlines
  • (07:37) - The Twenge Study and the GSS
  • (16:02) - The Hill-Shaped Trend
  • (19:23) - The Ordinal Variable Problem
  • (24:59) - The Married vs. Never-Married Paradox
  • (27:42) - Time-Traveling to the 1920s
  • (31:38) - The Ueda Study: A Better Approach
  • (35:25) - The Two Classrooms
  • (42:42) - What Counts as Sex?
  • (48:52) - Historical Sex Terms
  • (52:35) - The Sexual Repertoire Results
  • (55:53) - Why Is This Happening?
  • (01:02:12) - Rating the Claim


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