Could Cuba become America’s next geopolitical flashpoint?
Cuba remains one of the most politically charged issues in American foreign policy. More than 60 years after the Cuban Revolution, debates around sanctions, regime change, and military intervention are once again intensifying.
In this episode, Mikael Wolfe explains why Cuba is fundamentally different from Venezuela and Iran, and why a U.S. intervention would be far more complicated than many assume. He discusses Donald Trump’s approach to Cuba, the influence of Marco Rubio and Cuban-American politics, and how decades of sanctions have shaped Cuba’s economic crisis.
Mikael also explores Obama-era diplomacy, the growing influence of China and Russia in the region, and whether peaceful political reform in Cuba is still possible without foreign intervention or regime change. Throughout the conversation, he challenges common narratives surrounding democracy, sovereignty, and America’s long relationship with the island.
Mikael Wolfe is a historian, author, and lecturer at the Department of History at Stanford University whose research focuses on modern Latin America, Cuba, environmental history, and U.S.-Cuba relations. His work examines how politics, ideology, and resource conflicts have shaped Cuban society and its relationship with global powers.
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What You’ll Learn
Why Cuba still matters strategically to the U.S.
How Cuba’s system differs from Venezuela’s
Why Florida politics heavily shape Cuba policy
Why a U.S. intervention could happen but fail
How sanctions deepened Cuba’s economic crisis
Why Obama’s Cuba policy briefly changed everything
Whether Cuba can reform without regime change
⏱ Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:14 Trump’s Intentions for Cuba
02:25 Cuba vs. Iran vs. Venezuela
06:10 Why Cuba Still Matters to the US
10:34 The Politics Behind Regime Change
16:26 Can Cuba Be Compared to Taiwan?
20:23 Chances of a US Military Intervention
24:42 What Happens Over the Next Six Months?
25:46 Why Cuba Could Be the Next Target
28:48 What Happened to “America First”?
31:47 Rubio’s Influence on Cuba Policy
38:04 The Castro Legacy
40:47 Why an Intervention Could Fail
41:33 Cuba’s Deepening Economic Crisis
45:55 Is Cuba Really a National Security Threat?
49:13 What Happens if the US Intervenes?
51:19 Cuba, Iran, China & Russia
53:36 Will Cuba Ever Become Democratic?
57:34 Final Thoughts for the World
Follow Mikael:
Website: https://history.stanford.edu/people/mikael-wolfe
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikael-wolfe-5789952aa
Connect with Julian:
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thebeyondtomorrowpodcast/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/juliankissa/
LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/julian-issa
Website: www.beyondtomorrowpodcast.com
Email: bookings@beyondtomorrowpodcast.com
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