Kurt Lewis on the Fed, Inflation and the Future of Rates

Interest rates have been one of the biggest market stories of 2026, but what is really driving them higher? Kurt Lewis of Piper Sandler joins the podcast to break down the outlook for the Fed, inflation, real rates and the term premium. We discuss why the 10-year Treasury may have a hard time returning to 4%, whether deficits are actually driving rates higher, how oil and supply shocks have changed the bond market, and why a higher neutral rate could mean a very different interest-rate environment going forward. We also discuss the Fed’s dot plot and whether it has become more trouble than it’s worth.

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