June Goh hosts her first episode with Abhishek Kumar as the US-Iran ceasefire cracks and Hormuz transits collapse to near zero. They cover Brent flipping back to backwardation, Russia's diesel export ban, China's product relaxation, European cracks near 60, the ADNOC tender, and a short HOGO trade idea.
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Chapters:
(01:45) Hormuz reignites and the ceasefire cracks Vessels attacked, US revokes Iranian oil license, transits near zero. Trump says the truce is effectively over.
(03:13) Spreads, OPEC+ and depleted inventories Brent flips to backwardation, OPEC+ adds another August barrel, global stocks still down over 1 billion barrels.
(06:21) Can China save the product market? Beijing clears 1.3 million tons of product exports, but volumes skew to gasoline and jet, not diesel.
(08:07) Russia's diesel ban and refinery 101 Drone strikes force a Russian export ban. June breaks down which units get hit and what it signals.
(12:08) Crude: the ADNOC tender and the mini glut Chinese teapots buy Upper Zakum, Dubai returns to backwardation, how you can be short crude yet see a glut.
(15:01) Distillates, jet and freight European cracks surge past 60, a short HOGO idea, jet becomes a diesel story, Michael Ryan's de-escalation freight case.
