Episode 100: The great divergence: crude collapses while products rally

Felipe Elink Schuurman and research heads Neil Crosby, James Noel-Beswick, and Jorge Molinero mark episode 100 analyzing crude's peak weakness versus 10-year-high distillate rallies. Russia's refinery crisis, Hormuz rebalancing, and when stock replenishment becomes the real floor signal.

Chapters: 

**(01:47) Hormuz reopens, but the real question is what comes next** 

10-15 million barrels per day flowing out, but Iran maximizing exports while US refills reserves.

**(08:46) Russia's refining collapse is reshaping global product markets** 

Runs halved from 6M to 3M bpd. Ukraine's drone campaign crippling refineries. Fuel imports imminent.

**(12:50) Distillates at 10-year highs: Russian exports collapsing, US yields maxed** 

Global diesel and jet spreads outdoing 2022. East-West spreads historic. Products decoupling from crude.

**(17:25) Gasoline: The trend is your friend, but watch blending margins** 

RBOB and EBOB spreads rally to $51 on stock depletion. Arbs from ARA still pointing West.

**(27:20) Crude at peak weakness: Why the TI Brent short thesis works now** 

Paper collapsed, logs battered, all solutions materialized. Neil on why prices can only rise from here.