The K-shaped economy didn't create the barbell in FMCG portfolios. It accelerated a trend already twenty years in the making, and most manufacturers still measure it wrong.
In this episode of Growth, Brands and More, I'm joined by Todd Kirk of Middlegame, an FMCG marketing analytics firm. They build market structure models on Nielsen IQ data, increasingly with AI in the loop.
Todd worked both sides of that data. He started at IRI (now Circana), then moved client-side to Coca-Cola's brand teams. Today he applies that lens at Middlegame, built specifically for FMCG.
We open with the shrink-to-grow thesis and why the mainstream is being pinched from both ends. Then Todd walks through a live case study: a decomposition of sparkling wine sales in Ireland. It separates real incrementality from transfer demand, and shows exactly where a 2.3% retail value gain actually came from.
We close on why revenue growth management and commercial teams keep talking past each other. And on where AI genuinely earns its place in this kind of analysis.
If you manage a portfolio that's being pulled toward value on one side and premium on the other, this one is for you.
In this episode:
00:03:49 — Welcome back: Todd Kirk and Middlegame's read on the "first moment of truth"
00:07:54 — Defining the K-shaped economy:
00:13:48 — Beyond price: multi-banner shopping and the private label upgrade
00:16:02 — From price-pack architecture to portfolio interactions
00:26:06 — Case study: decomposing sparkling wine sales in Ireland
00:40:44 — RGM vs. commercial, market structure as a Rubik's cube, and where AI fits
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