US payrolls fell by 23,000 in the latest print, with over 100,000 of downward revisions to the previous two months — and yet Treasury yields climbed. When bond markets rally on bad news and then give it all back, something deeper is going on.
Meanwhile, the much-publicised coordinated intervention to support the Japanese yen — complete with a conveniently photographed "buy yen" note on the Treasury Secretary's desk — may be far less than it appears. And with Japanese government bond yields hitting two-decade highs, the pressure on Tokyo is building fast.
Elvis sits down with veteran macro trader Jonny Matthews — 25 years of institutional experience at Brevan Howard and Citigroup — to unpack why the Treasury market shrugged off a weak jobs report, what the US–Japan yen intervention is really designed to achieve, and why the long end of the bond market in both countries is flashing red.
In this episode:
Why Treasury yields rose despite a negative payrolls print — and what a shrinking labour supply means for wages and inflation
The unemployment rate at a 13-month low of 4.1% even as jobs are lost — the retiring boomers and net-zero migration story the headlines miss
Bessent's "whatever it takes" moment: the leaked to-do list, the Exchange Stabilization Fund, and why this intervention is more theatre than firepower
Japan's high nominal GDP playbook — inflating away a 200% debt-to-GDP ratio while JGB yields hit two-decade highs — and the 1992 sterling lesson for anyone defending a currency
Why 4.5% on the 10-year and 5% on the 30-year now look like floors rather than ceilings — and the asymmetric risk around this week's CPI print ahead of September's Fed meeting
Jonny has spent 25 years trading macro at the highest institutional level. This is not retail speculation or headline chasing. It is rigorous, independent analysis from someone who has sat at the table.
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