The Fed's About to Outpace Everyone

The Fed hiked 25 basis points last week, and the market's answer was to rally. The S&P is up 3.5% since the meeting, the Nasdaq 4.5%. Retail sales control group spending jumped 1.4% in August against a forecast for half a percent. Whatever that hike was meant to do, it isn't slowing anything down yet.

That isn't the story everywhere else. The BOJ's own hawks are on their way out. Two doves have already been appointed and the two remaining hawks will end up being replaced by more doves. The Bank of England held rates, even with more energy driven inflation coming in October and January, because the UK labour market has been shedding jobs for almost two years and there's no second round effect to fear.

Jonny walks through why this hiking cycle won't be a coordinated one like 2022, why the Fed still has room to go further than its G10 peers, and why US households have never been in better shape to keep spending through it.

In this episode: Only the RBA has hiked more than once this cycle, while the BOJ, Fed and ECB all move at very different speeds The BOJ's newest board members dissenting against a hike days after taking their seats, and why the doves are about to take control Less than 5 basis points priced for the BOJ's October meeting UK payroll jobs shrinking for most of the last two years, with two more energy price hikes still coming in October and January Retail sales control group spending up 1.4% in August against a forecast for half a percent Household wealth to income at an all time high, and debt to disposable income at a two decade low Real fed funds rate only just turning positive, and why Jonny thinks the Fed has another 50 to 100 basis points to go

Jonny has spent 25 years trading macro at the highest institutional level. This is not retail speculation or headline chasing. It is rigorous, independent analysis from someone who has sat at the table.

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