In this FSD episode, the momentum hangover rolls on while a quality rotation quietly takes hold. Semis soaked up so much capital that everything else lagged the S&P, and that put quality compounders on sale: ICE, Broadridge, Progressive. Sales and earnings keep climbing while the stock prices fall, which is exactly the setup a trained analyst loves. It's a CFA's market. Apple, meanwhile, looks close to a cycle top.
Then the big story: China's Kimi model and what it means for OpenAI and Anthropic. Ram argues Anthropic had its IPO window, especially with the run of Claude news drops, and should have taken it. Oracle is already wearing the counterparty pain, and a ban on China LLMs isn't off the table. Still, cheap and abundant intelligence is good for the world. Competition makes everyone better. The next catalyst to watch is hyperscaler earnings, where demand for token inference should show up in the numbers, and Microsoft keeps getting a free ride on OpenAI's innovation without the brutal capex math the labs face.
From there the episode shifts to life outside the tape. A new sleep peptide brought higher REM, better dream recall, and a brief flash of lucidity, which turns into a short lesson on lucid dreaming and the book Dream Yoga. Back in markets, over-positioning gets the Thanksgiving treatment: everyone ate too much of a good thing, and the paper-handed momentum buyers need a clearing event. There's also a Wall Street Journal story about a 19-year-old rotating out of Nvidia and Microsoft into space and quantum. You probably want to do the opposite.
The close is pure joy: Spain playing the World Cup final like AlphaGo, a goalie who earned unlimited grass-fed steaks, and a first trip to the gym with the kids. Sauna, swimming, stretching, and the first signs of the return on kids.
Topics covered:
- The momentum hangover and the quality-compounder rotation (ICE, Broadridge, Progressive)
- High-quality dislocated assets and why this is a CFA's market
- Apple's cycle top
- China's Kimi model, the threat to OpenAI and Anthropic, and the missed Anthropic IPO window
- Why cheap, abundant intelligence is net bullish
- Hyperscaler earnings as the next catalyst; Microsoft's free ride on OpenAI
- The "best businesses in the world" watchlist and the November '23 quality melt-up
- Sleep peptides, REM, dream recall, and lucid dreaming (Dream Yoga)
- Over-positioning, paper-handed momentum buyers, and the coming clearing event
- The WSJ's uncannily contrarian 19-year-old investor story
- Spain's AlphaGo-caliber World Cup final
- Taking the kids to the gym and the return on kids
About the show: Non-Consensus Investing is hosted by Ram Ahluwalia, CEO of Lumida Wealth. Every weekday he records an FSD on the drive home: quick, unfiltered takes on markets, quality businesses, AI, health, and family. Nothing here is investment advice.
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