In this FSD episode, recorded live on a Monday afternoon, we run through the setup for the week and where the real money is being made.
We start on health and longevity — tonight's sleep peptide and why measuring success by how little you sleep is a bad bet on your brain — before making the case that bank earnings are the best cheat code for reading the macro: better than GDP or payrolls, and about to confirm a rolling expansion with loan growth up, delinquencies stable, and even the lower part of a K-shaped economy doing well. In big tech, the argument for Microsoft as this year's Google — beaten up on capex but with locked-in enterprise distribution and an "Empire Strikes Back" browser-war rhyme — lands on a provocative trade: short Anthropic, long Microsoft.
On the health book, a personal switch from a statin to Repatha dropped LDL from 140 to 65 and led to buying its maker, Amgen, on 30% sales growth and a ~15x PE below the S&P. We close on positioning: correlations are low and animal spirits have faded, a hidden Markov model reads this as a quality-and-earnings market rather than a momentum one, and with 60/40 dead, energy at ~4x forward earnings and insurance stocks are the new bonds — the latter a quiet, unpriced beneficiary of life extension. Along the way: ego is the enemy, oil's conflict premium, and the turnover reshaping the Senate.
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