EP 186: Back to the Lumber Futures — Short Funds and the Last Lumber Cowboys

Lumber prices are soft—but the demand picture may surprise you. Scott Hall of Matheus Lumber joins The Lumber Word crew to explain why his company’s lumber volume has held relatively steady, where multifamily business is growing, and what customers are already booking for 2027.

Ashley Boeckholt, Gregg Riley, Matt Beymer, and Charles discuss whether SPF, US Species and SYP are finding a bottom, how mill curtailments may be supporting prices, and why freight remains a major challenge. Scott shares how he manages inventory against future commitments, why buying too far ahead can add costs, and what’s driving Texas builders toward Southern Yellow Pine studs. The conversation also covers tight construction financing, the outlook for housing demand, and a key question: has supply fallen fast enough to keep weak demand from pushing lumber prices much lower?

Episode timeline 00:00 Welcome and the first Patreon Insiders livestream 01:09 Lumber market overview: seasonal weakness and discounted cash prices 02:37 Spruce outlook: mill economics and potential curtailments 04:51 Southern Yellow Pine: freight and regional price differences 08:32 Meet Scott Hall of Matheus Lumber 10:27 Multifamily demand: steady volume and shifting regional activity 13:23 Booking 2027 projects and the risks of pricing too far ahead 16:02 How builders buy lumber—and how Scott manages inventory 19:19 Inside storage: protecting lumber and panels 20:51 Species switching: Southern Yellow Pine versus Douglas fir studs 22:16 Finger-jointed studs: pricing, availability, and alternatives 25:23 Western lumber update: is Douglas fir finding a bottom? 27:03 Gregg’s bottom call on spruce 2x4s 27:53 Homebuilder pressures and financing structures 30:24 Multifamily financing: contractors putting equity into projects 31:49 Has housing demand bottomed? The outlook into 2027 36:22 Q4 buying, curtailments, and a potentially higher price floor 37:59 Mill profitability and the importance of product mix 40:01 Why Western mills produce different sizes and grades 41:55 The Man in the Arena and lessons from trading every day 43:04 Patreon appreciation and a possible AI addition to the show 46:48 Thanks to Scott and closing remarks Timestamps match the original recording. Edits or an added intro will shift them.

Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com