The lumber market is getting interesting again—and the signals aren’t exactly lining up.
Ashley, Gregg, and Matt break down a market where demand remains “punky,” western species flailing, studs are showing slight signs of life after deep counters, and lumber futures are trading at a steep discount to cash. The big question: Is November lumber really headed toward $500—or is the futures market getting too bearish?
Gregg lays out the technical case for why $500 is at least possible, while Matt sees real value developing at current levels and argues that some of the best buying opportunities may be showing up right now. Meanwhile, Ashley asks the question every trader should be asking: Where is the edge?
The guys dig into forward pricing, inventory strategy, hedging when the board is at a discount, Canadian tariffs, shrinking contract business, and why 2027 could bring more open-market buying—and potentially more volatility.
The takeaway? This probably isn’t the market to be a hero. Stay liquid, turn inventory, buy value, sell the overvalued stuff, and be ready when the market finally shows its hand.
1.Timeline
00:00 — Episode #180: What’s the market telling us?
01:37 — Housing demand remains “punky”
05:00 — Western species bounce and the buying starts
09:20 — Can lumber really rally into the fall?
11:45 — Is November futures getting too cheap?
14:25 — Forward lumber pricing and the opportunity for buyers
17:00 — Where is the edge in today’s lumber market?
18:10 — September/November futures positioning
19:30 — The $500 lumber bomb gets dropped
21:25 — Canadian tariffs, mill economics and supply
25:00 — Should buyers start putting out aggressive Q4/Q1 numbers?
26:45 — How do you manage inventory if lumber falls to $500?
29:00 — Carry less inventory, hedge actively and stay opportunistic
30:20 — What happens if November trades at a huge discount to cash?
33:00 — Could 2027 bring fewer contracts and more open-market buying?
37:30 — Less contract business could mean more volatility
40:15 — Looking ahead to the 2027 lumber market
44:40 — Ashley’s lesson: You can get long faster than you think
46:35 — The low-inventory strategy heading into fall
49:00 — What lumber items still have value—and liquidity?
50:20 — $500 lumber: prediction or just a possibility?
52:25 — Are studs signaling the next cash-market rally?
53:45 — Matt’s game plan: If cheap 2x4 shows up, buy it
53:55 — Southern Yellow Pine starts bouncing off the lows
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
