Midyear CRE recap: Growth, inflation, and the exit bet

The first half of 2026 opened with a soft-landing story and closed with reignited inflation, sub-2% growth, and a hawkish Fed. In this midyear episode of CRE Exchange, Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai work through what did happen: four straight Fed holds, consumer confidence at its lowest in the survey's 70-plus year history, and a frozen housing market.

Omar follows with the public markets story, where REITs returned nearly 14%, and REIT M&A is on pace for its most active year in a decade, even as private CRE remained in a gradual recovery mode. The episode closes with original Altus Group research on implied versus realized growth in CRE: when buyers price in growth at acquisition, does that growth actually materialize? And does it protect value?

Key moments:

• 01:29 Midyear economy recap
• 02:08 Growth and inflation shocks
• 04:06 Consumer and labor check
• 06:56 Housing and construction trends
• 08:30 Fed holds and rate reality
• 10:14 Public markets snapshot
• 11:50 Credit and data center capital
• 14:12 Rates macro and REIT rally
• 19:04 Fresh labor and construction prints
• 23:22 Implied vs realized growth research
• 29:41 How to access our in-depth research