Jackson Hole: what’s at stake?

All eyes are on Jackson Hole, where Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faces one of the trickiest balancing acts of his young tenure. Inflation remains stubborn, energy prices are rising again and central banks around the world are turning increasingly hawkish. But in the US, the picture is complicated by the Treasury’s push to tame longer-term yields through bigger bond buybacks. A hawkish Warsh could send short-term yields and the US dollar higher, while potentially anchoring inflation expectations and limiting pressure on the long end. A more cautious or ambiguous message could weaken the dollar, revive selling in longer-dated Treasuries and raise fresh questions about Fed credibility. Meanwhile, US equity returns look far less spectacular for international investors once currency depreciation and inflation are taken into account!

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.