Fed hawks are back!

Markets are kicking off the week under pressure as renewed Middle East tensions push oil prices higher, while hawkish central bank expectations add another layer of uncertainty. Kevin Warsh’s much-awaited Jackson Hole speech boosted expectations of a September Fed rate hike, sending the US dollar and short-term yields higher and weighing on equity appetite. In Europe, accelerating inflation and renewed pressure on energy prices are strengthening expectations that the ECB will continue tightening policy. Attention now turns to this week’s US jobs data for clues on whether the labour market remains resilient enough to support the Fed hawks. Meanwhile, earnings from Broadcom and Dell will offer another glimpse into booming AI infrastructure demand – and the increasingly important question of how Big Tech will finance its massive spending plans. Higher oil, higher yields, tighter policy and rising borrowing costs: the ingredients for more market volatility are falling into place.

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.