In this episode recorded on September 17, 2026, we sit down with Samuel Sule (CEO, Renaissance Capital Africa) and Divine Ulamasi (Analyst, Renaissance Capital Africa) to dissect the investment thesis behind the Dangote Refinery IPO. We explore Nigeria's broader macroeconomic shift following fuel subsidy removals and naira liberalisation, the refinery's high Nelson Complexity Index rating and $2.40 per barrel cash operating cost target, Phase Two expansion plans, the structural gross refining margin advantage, and the cross-border access channels being built for retail and institutional investors across East Africa.

Show Notes

00:00:00 Introduction

00:02:36 Overview of the Nigeria Market

00:09:27 Nigeria Oil History and Building of the Dangote Refinery

00:15:35 Investment Thesis and Business Model

00:25:19 Valuation

00:28:05 Risks

00:32:40 IPO Terms and Demand

00:39:16 Dividend Outlook

00:47:06 How to Participate in the IPO

00:48:11 Key Takeaways



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