LatAm Outlook 2026: Mexico stays steady. Colombia feels the strain.

In this episode, I’m joined by economists Elijah Oliveros Rosen and Harumi Hasegawa Sanchez from S&P Global Ratings.

We unpacked why Latin America’s 2024 unexpectedly outpaced forecasts, and why two of its largest economies—Mexico and Colombia—are heading in very different directions.

We explore how trade tariffs hit Asia harder than Latin America, how a weak dollar and interest-rate shifts brought capital into the region, and how AI helped global risk appetite—and how Latin America both benefitted and lagged. We then shift to country-level analysis:

• Mexico: strong trade ties, lower public investment, resilient performance.

• Colombia: weak growth, sticky inflation, fragile fiscal framework.

We close with a look ahead to 2026 and what investors should watch next.
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[00:00] Latin America overview and why Mexico and Colombia were chosen
[03:30] Why US tariffs hit Asia harder and helped Latin America
[06:00] Capital inflows rise as the Fed cuts rates and the dollar weakens
[08:30] AI lifts global asset prices and why Latin America is missing the data center boom
[10:20] Mexico’s resilience despite low growth and USMCA uncertainty
[13:00] Colombia’s weak growth, sticky inflation and fragile fiscal position