Katie Stockton Still Sees a Bull Market. So Why Is Her ETF Only 50% in Stocks?

Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies explains why the S&P 500 can reach record highs while many individual stocks struggle. She sees the bull market as intact, but weaker participation raises an important question for diversified investors: is the pullback creating opportunity, or signaling a more lasting change?

In this episode of Excess Returns, Katie Stockton joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to examine market breadth, rising Treasury yields, sector leadership and the signals that would change her outlook. She also explains why the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF holds roughly half its assets in equities at the time of the conversation, and walks through the charts for gold, oil and Bitcoin.

Topics covered:

• Why narrow leadership can sustain the index while diversified portfolios lag
• The difference between an overbought market and a downturn in momentum
• Why weak breadth alone is not a reliable market-timing signal
• Small-cap support levels and the difference between a relief rally and a lasting recovery
• The Treasury-yield breakout and credit spreads as a longer-term risk gauge
• Sector relative strength, technology leadership and international market concentration
• How the TACK ETF's rules-based approach produces more defensive positioning
• Gold's role as a potential hedge despite a weakening price trend
• Crude oil's support and resistance levels and Katie Stockton's Bitcoin outlook
• The BNAV ETF's tactical Bitcoin strategy and the risk signals to watch into year-end

Learn more about Fairlead Strategies.

Follow Katie Stockton on X.

Chapters:

00:00 The bull market and weakening breadth
06:02 Narrow leadership and small-cap weakness
13:43 Treasury yields, breakouts and resistance
18:56 Credit spreads and sector leadership
24:53 TACK positioning, semiconductors and international stocks
30:22 Gold, oil and Bitcoin: reading the trends
35:30 Bitcoin indicators and the BNAV strategy
39:47 Credit, volatility and tech: the year-end risk watch

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No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.